As COVID-19 infections in Georgia continue to grow slowly but steadily, it is time to take a closer look at how this development compares with the outbreaks in other countries. While Georgia is on the same trajectory as Japan, it currently falls short of the benchmark set by some other wealthy east Asian countries.
14.04.2020. This is the conclusion made by Dr. Lorenz HILFIKER, a Swiss mathematician based in Tbilisi. With his kind permission, Caucasian Journal is publishing the findings he posted in his blog, which provides data-focused coverage of the COVID-19 crisis in Georgia.
The first cases in Georgia were confirmed around the same time as in many European countries. Yet, the virus has so far spread considerably less than in most of the Western world.
For example, my native country Switzerland recorded its first case on February 25, just one day before Georgia. Today (April 10) the tally for Switzerland stands at about 24 thousand confirmed cases and one thousand fatalities, while Georgia has recorded merely 230 cases and three fatalities to date.
Here is a chart of all countries which have reached 100 cumulative confirmed cases at least a week ago (thin grey lines).
A straight line in this chart corresponds to exponential growth with a fixed transmission rate. The steeper the slope of a line, the faster the spread of the virus. The four dashed lines indicate exponential growth where cases double daily, every third day, every week and every two weeks, respectively.